エネルギー戦略 現実的な電源構成案に改めよ

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Aug. 5, 2012)
The government must make energy scenarios more realistic
エネルギー戦略　現実的な電源構成案に改めよ（8月4日付・読売社説）

The government's scenarios for a national energy strategy have been called into question over their feasibility. It is hard to deny the government has failed to sufficiently explain them to the public. These problems must be tackled.
　政府のエネルギー戦略の選択肢は、実現性に疑問があるうえに、説明不足が否めない。問題点を改善すべきである。

In June, the government presented three scenarios on the ratio of nuclear power in the nation's energy sources in 2030, setting the ratio at zero percent, 15 percent or 20 to 25 percent.
　政府は６月、２０３０年の原子力発電の比率を「０％」「１５％」「２０～２５％」とする三つの選択肢を示した。

Aimed at overhauling the current basic energy plan, all of the scenarios call for reducing the nation's dependence on nuclear power and making up the difference with thermal power and renewable energy, such as solar power. The government reportedly intends to reach a conclusion on the matter by the end of this month following public hearings and other types of national discussions.
　現行のエネルギー基本計画を見直すたたき台で、いずれも原発を減らし、太陽光など再生可能エネルギーや火力発電で補う内容だ。政府は意見聴取会など「国民的議論」を経て、今月中に結論を出すとしている。

The scenarios appear to offer a wide range of options--from the zero percent plan aimed at denuclearization to the 20 percent to 25 percent plan calling for nuclear power to be used in the mid- and long term. However, all of the scenarios share a critical flaw: They are unrealistic.
　脱原発を図る「０％」から、中長期的に原発を活用する「２０～２５％」まで、選択の幅は広いように見える。だが、すべての選択肢が現実味に乏しいという、致命的な欠点を抱えている。

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Optimistic estimates

The ratio of renewable energy appears to have been overestimated. In the scenario calling for no nuclear power, renewable energy sources account for 35 percent of the nation's total electricity generation, while the two plans that include the use of nuclear power call for such eco-friendly energy to supply 25 percent to 30 percent of the nation's electricity. Currently, renewable energy, including hydroelectric power, accounts for only about 10 percent.
　再生エネの見積もりが明らかに過大である。水力を含め約１０％に過ぎない再生エネについて、原発ゼロ案は３５％に、原発を残す２案も２５～３０％に増やす想定だ。

The government reportedly plans to install solar panels at more than 10 million homes to make the nation's solar power capacity 20 times greater than it is at present. But it is unclear how this plan will be implemented.
　太陽光を２０倍に拡大するため、１０００万戸以上の住宅に太陽光パネルを設置するという。この計画を実現する道筋は不透明だ。

Although a renewable energy purchase program was launched in July, there is concern that the program could cause a rise in electricity rates, a side effect that has been seen in Germany. The target ratio of renewable energy should be revised to more realistic figures.
　再生エネの買い取り制度は７月にスタートしたが、ドイツのように電気料金が急騰する副作用も懸念される。再生エネの目標は現実的な水準に改めるべきだろう。

The government has also yet to explain sufficiently how these scenarios would affect daily life. Its estimates show that a regular household would see its monthly utility bill increase by as much as 10,000 yen as a result of the wider use of renewable energy.
　国民生活への影響に関する説明も物足りない。政府は再生エネの拡大などに伴い、標準的な家庭の電気代が最大月１万円ほど増えるといった試算を示している。

However, we suspect the public would face even greater burdens as rising overall costs of power generation could result in price increases and weigh on companies' business operations. The firms could be forced to restructure.
　しかし、負担増はこれにとどまらないのではないか。生産など経済全体の電力コストが上がり、物価上昇や企業業績の悪化を招くと考えられるからだ。リストラの拡大も予想される。

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Lack of information

According to estimates by the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren), which were based on data from a government panel, if the zero percent nuclear power plan is implemented, the number of people unemployed in Japan will rise by 2 million from about 3 million at present. The annual income of working households is estimated to decline nearly 600,000 yen, dealing a serious blow to people's lives.
　経団連が政府の審議会のデータをもとに試算したところ、原発ゼロのケースでは、現在約３００万人の失業者が２００万人増え、勤労者世帯の所得は年６０万円近く減る。国民生活に大打撃となる。

It is vital that people decide on the ratio of nuclear power they want to support, after being properly informed of the negative impact of reducing dependence on nuclear power and extreme energy-saving efforts. The government should provide information that will help them make proper decisions.
　国民が減原発や省エネのマイナス面を正確に把握し、望ましい電源構成を決めることが重要だ。政府は判断材料となる情報を、わかりやすく提供すべきである。

Meanwhile, questions have also been raised about the economic growth rate under the three scenarios, which are all based on the assumption that the nation's economy will grow at a rate of about 1 percent in real terms. This figure is lower than the government's goal of a 2 percent growth rate, set under the national revitalization strategy.
　三つの選択肢が前提とする経済成長率が実質１％前後と、政府の日本再生戦略で目指す２％成長を下回っている点も不可解だ。

Motohisa Furukawa, state minister in charge of national strategy, said the scenarios' assumption is not directly linked to the existing growth strategy. However, his remarks are hardly convincing.
　古川国家戦略相は「選択肢の想定と成長戦略は直接関係しない」と釈明するが、説得力に欠ける。

The government should view a national energy strategy as an important pillar of economic growth and reconsider the three scenarios.
エネルギー戦略は、成長への重要な柱であることを踏まえ、三つの選択肢を再検討すべきである。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Aug. 4, 2012)
（2012年8月4日01時57分 読売新聞）