ＧＤＰ高成長 景気の本格回復につなげたい

The Yomiuri Shimbun (May. 19, 2012)
Devise effective strategy for robust economic recovery
ＧＤＰ高成長　景気の本格回復につなげたい（5月18日付・読売社説）

The nation's economy has finally begun to recover on the back of robust consumer spending and reconstruction projects launched after the Great East Japan Earthquake.
　堅調な個人消費と東日本大震災の復興事業をテコに、ようやく景気が回復してきた。

It is crucial that the government use this tailwind to put the Japanese economy on a solid growth track.
　追い風を生かし、日本経済を確かな成長軌道に乗せることが重要だ。

Japan's real gross domestic product for the January-March quarter of 2012 grew 1 percent from the previous quarter, marking positive growth for three consecutive quarters. GDP grew at a high rate of 4.1 percent on an annual basis.
　今年１～３月期の実質国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）は前期比１・０％増と、３四半期連続のプラス成長になった。年率換算で４・１％という高い成長率である。

Consumer spending, which accounts for 60 percent of GDP, marked its fourth straight quarterly increase. This was largely due to a surge in new car sales after a subsidy program for purchases of environmentally friendly vehicles was reinstated late last year. Consumption on entertainment, including amusement parks, also was brisk.
　ＧＤＰの６割を占める個人消費は、４四半期連続でプラスとなった。昨年末にエコカー補助金が復活し、新車販売が急増した影響が大きい。遊園地など娯楽関連の消費も順調だった。

More than one year has passed since the March 11, 2011, disaster. It seems consumer sentiment, which cooled due to a mood of self-restraint that enveloped the nation after the catastrophe, has started to pick up.
　震災から１年たち、自粛ムードで冷えた消費者心理が好転してきたようだ。

Also, public investment increased for the first time in three quarters. We think it is safe to say that economic growth is being led by domestic demand.
　公共投資も、３四半期ぶりに増加に転じた。内需主導の成長と言えるだろう。

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Recovery at crucial stage

Implementation of the almost 20 trillion yen reconstruction budget will soon enter a crucial stage. The government expects the economy will continue to log positive growth in the April-June quarter, supported by demand created by reconstruction projects.
　総額２０兆円近い復興予算の執行は、これから本番を迎える。政府は４～６月期も復興需要を支えにプラス成長が続くと見ている。

However, the ability of public expenditures to prop up the economy is limited. There is concern that the economy could lose steam in summer and beyond.
　ただし、財政支出による景気の押し上げ効果には限りがある。夏以降の息切れが心配だ。

The subsidy program for eco-friendly car purchases is scheduled to expire at the end of January next year, but its budget--which totals about 300 billion yen--could run out as early as this summer. If the subsidies end earlier than planned, car sales will inevitably drop sharply after the initial surge.
　エコカー補助金の制度は来年１月末までだが、約３０００億円の予算は夏ごろにも底をつく可能性がある。支給が早めに打ち切りになれば、自動車販売の反動減は避けられまい。

Reconstruction projects also will end up sitting idle if rebuilding plans for disaster-hit areas do not progress smoothly.
　復興事業も、被災地の復興計画作りが順調に進まないと停滞を余儀なくされる。

A looming electricity shortage this summer also could put a brake on production and further accelerate the hollowing-out of domestic industries.
　夏の電力不足が、生産にブレーキをかけ、産業空洞化を一段と加速させる恐れもある。

The government should steadily implement policies, including reconstruction support and the reactivation of idled nuclear reactors after confirming they are safe.
　政府は、復興支援や安全を確認した原子力発電所の再稼働など、政策を着実に進めるべきだ。

Upward pressure on the yen has intensified as concern mounts that the European financial crisis may flare up again due to recent political turmoil in Greece. This could drag down Japan's exports, which had only just started to recover.
　ギリシャの混迷で欧州危機再燃への懸念が広がり、円高圧力が強まっている。持ち直してきた輸出の足を引っ張りかねない。

The government and the Bank of Japan need to muster the resolve to intervene in foreign exchange markets and take additional monetary-easing measures--if necessary--to prevent the yen from appreciating excessively.
　政府・日銀は過度な円高の阻止へ、為替介入や追加金融緩和も辞さない決意が必要だ。

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Focus on quality not quantity

A strategy for growth led by private-sector demand must be accelerated while reconstruction projects and other measures are having an effect.
　復興事業などの効果があるうちに、民需主導の成長戦略を加速させることが求められる。

The growth strategy mapped out under the administration of former Prime Minister Naoto Kan two years ago incorporated about 400 measures. A government check of how these measures had been implemented found less than 10 percent had produced favorable results. The Kan administration's growth strategy was merely an empty slogan.
　菅前政権が２年前に策定した新成長戦略は、約４００の施策が盛り込まれた。その実施状況を政府が点検したところ、成果が見られたのは１割弱にとどまった。全くの看板倒れである。

The Cabinet of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is discussing a strategy for Japan's revitalization at the government's Council on National Strategy and Policy, which comprises cabinet ministers and representatives from business circles.
　野田内閣は閣僚や経済界の代表による国家戦略会議で、「日本再生戦略」を検討している。

We urge the government to formulate an effective strategy by carefully selecting policies, rather than including every scheme in a bid to try to please everyone.
　総花的にならないよう政策を厳選し、効果的な内容に仕上げてもらいたい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, May 18, 2012)
（2012年5月18日01時38分 読売新聞）