中国経済成長―「７．５％」を歓迎する

--The Asahi Shimbun, March 6
EDITORIAL: China’s lower economic growth target a wise move
中国経済成長―「７．５％」を歓迎する

China’s economy has been growing rapidly over the years, but it has created a raft of unwanted by-products as well, such as economic disparity, corruption and environmental destruction.
　格差や腐敗、環境破壊という負の副産物をまき散らしながら高度成長してきた中国。

Now, China has finally decided to shift its policy priorities toward economic growth more focused on social stability. We welcome the move.
それがようやく、社会の安定を重視する成長へと転換をめざすことになった。歓迎したい。

The annual meeting of China’s National People’s Congress began in Beijing on March 5. In his work report to parliament, Premier Wen Jiabao announced that the government has set a policy target of 7.5-percent economic growth for 2012, down from the 8-percent goal the country pursued for seven consecutive years since 2005.
　中国の全国人民代表大会（全人代）が５日、北京で始まった。温家宝（ウェン・チアパオ）首相は、１２年の経済成長率目標を７．５％とすると表明し、０５年から７年続けて掲げてきた「８％前後の成長」の旗を取り換えた。

Wen said the government has lowered the growth target to “achieve higher-level, higher-quality development over a longer period of time.”
　温首相は成長目標を下げた理由として「長期にわたって一層高水準で、より良質な発展につなげるためである」と述べた。

China’s Hu-Wen administration, led by President Hu Jintao and Wen, is slated to pass the baton to a new leadership through a power transition to be approved at the National Congress of the Communist Party of China scheduled for autumn this year and at next year’s gathering of the National People’s Congress.
　胡錦濤（フー・チンタオ）国家主席と温首相が率いる「胡温体制」は、今年秋の共産党大会と来春の全人代を経て、次の体制と交代する。

This year’s meeting of the legislature serves as the platform for the current leadership to start the final phase of its efforts to achieve policy goals.
今年の全人代は、総仕上げの政策を決める場となった。

The size of the Chinese economy has quadrupled over the 10-year period in which the country has been under the current leadership.
　中国の経済規模は現体制の約１０年間で、４倍に急拡大した。

But the rapid economic expansion has created various problems, including a widening gap between rich and poor, real estate market bubbles and the deterioration of the environment.
しかし、その一方で、貧富の格差の拡大や不動産バブル、環境の悪化などを招いた。

The fiscal stimulus measures the government introduced to protect the economy from the effects of the global financial crisis that started in the United States in 2008 led to a wave of public works projects of dubious worth. The public spending spree has left local governments with massive bad assets.
　米国金融危機の影響を避けるために始めた景気刺激策は、必ずしも必要ではない公共工事ラッシュを招き、今は地方政府の不良債権となっている。

Wen stated that Beijing will lower its target for growth in the value of total exports and imports to “around 10 percent” from more than 20 percent last year as a step to correct such distortions in the economy.
　そういったゆがみを正すために、温首相は輸出入の伸び率の目標を昨年の２割超から「１０％程度」に下げると明言した。

The premier also said the government will aim at economic growth driven mainly by domestic demand through policy efforts to increase people’s income and thereby stoke consumer spending. To do so, he said, the government will try to increase the nation’s per-capita income at the same pace as its economic growth rate.
　そして、人々の収入増で消費を拡大し内需主導の成長をめざすため、経済成長率と同じペースで１人あたりの収入を増やす方針を確認した。

All these decisions represent welcome steps to guide the economy away from the high-speed but unbalanced growth in recent years.
　いずれも、いびつな高成長路線から抜け出す策として評価できる。

But the growth-oriented economic policy is not the only cause of the problems plaguing the nation.
ただし、中国のひずみは成長政策だけが原因ではない。

Another contributing factor is the government’s tight control on the yuan’s exchange rates.
　たとえば、当局が管理する人民元相場である。

Although major Western countries have been urging Beijing to allow the Chinese currency to appreciate, Wen only said the government will increase “flexibility of the managed floating exchange rate system.”
　欧米からは切り上げを求める声が相次ぐが、温首相は「管理変動相場制の柔軟性を強める」と述べるにとどまった。

A cheap yuan could make the Chinese economy even more dependent on exports for growth and increase the risk of asset bubbles by creating excessive liquidity.
　人民元安は輸出依存を強めかねないし、資金があふれ資産バブルの恐れも増す。

Chinese leaders should not forget that their country would suffer most from the bursting of such bubbles.
はじけて最大の被害を受けるのは中国であることを忘れてはならない。

Meanwhile, there is no end to stories about party seniors’ intervention in economic affairs, such as bidding for construction projects.
　一方で、幹部が工事の入札などの経済活動に介入する例があとを絶たない。

Wen pledged to step up efforts to crack down on such acts. But that will not be enough.
　温首相は取り締まりを強めると表明したが、それだけでは足りない。

Behind this problem is the policy system that gives the Communist Party the power to make all policy decisions. It is imperative for China to reform the system.
背景には党がすべてを決めるという政治体制があり、その改革が急がれる。

There may be concerns that Beijing’s move to lower its growth target could have a negative impact on the economies of countries with close ties with China, including Japan.
　成長目標を下げたことで、日本など関係の深い国の経済に悪影響を与えるのでは、という心配もあるだろう。

In the long run, however, the world economy would be better served by more stable and balanced development of Chinese society.
しかし、中国社会が安定した成長を続けることが、長期的には国際経済に好影響を与えるはずである。