2011/12/20

米イラン制裁 懸念される原油取引への影響

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Dec. 19, 2011)
U.S. sanctions on Iran likely to affect Japan most
米イラン制裁 懸念される原油取引への影響(12月18日付・読売社説)

Iran has refused to comply with the international community's demands that the country prove it is not developing nuclear weapons. It is unavoidable for other nations to pressure Iran to reconsider its stance by strengthening sanctions.
 核兵器開発疑惑の解明を拒むイランに、国際社会が制裁強化の圧力をかけて翻意を促すのは当然のことだ。

However, if sanctions are introduced incorrectly, they could have a negative impact on other countries, including Japan, which imports oil from Iran.
 だが制裁のやり方を誤れば、イラン原油を輸入する日本などへの悪影響も懸念される。

We should carefully and thoroughly study the impact of the new U.S. sanctions on Iran, which were recently approved by Congress.
 米議会が可決したイランへの追加制裁案の効果については、慎重な見極めが必要である。

The sanctions, which were included in an annual U.S. defense authorization bill, limit dollar-based transactions between U.S. financial institutions and those in foreign countries, including Japan, which engage in transactions with the Central Bank of Iran.
 制裁は、イラン中央銀行と金融取引する日本など外国金融機関に、米金融機関とのドル取引を制限するという内容で、国防権限法案に盛り込まれた。

The sanctions will come into effect six months after U.S. President Barack Obama signs the bill into law.
オバマ大統領の署名で成立し、半年の猶予期間を経て発効するという。

The Central Bank of Iran is in charge of settling accounts for the nation's oil trade.
Therefore, it plays a crucial economic role as oil accounts for about 80 percent of the country's exports.
 イラン中銀は、イランの輸出総額の8割を占める原油取引の決済にあたる中枢機関だ。

If foreign banks stop doing business with the central bank to avoid being targeted by U.S. sanctions, it will be difficult for Iran to export oil.
米国の制裁対象になることを恐れて外国銀行がイラン中銀との取引を中止すれば、原油輸出は困難になる。

This is the aim of the United States--to prevent funds accrued from oil exports from being used to develop nuclear weapons.
 米国はこれにより、核開発資金への転用阻止を狙っている。

===

Negative effects of sanctions

However, if Iranian oil supplies decline due to the U.S. sanctions, international oil prices are likely to jump.
 しかし、制裁でイランの原油供給量が滞り、原油の国際価格の高騰を招く恐れもある。

The sanctions will be meaningless if the oil price increase benefits Iran or cools down the world economy.
その結果、イランが潤ったり、世界経済が冷え込んだりする事態を招けば、制裁は意味を失う。

What is more disconcerting is the influence sanctions could have on Japan, which is Iran's second-largest oil export partner after China.
 さらに気がかりなのは、イランにとって、中国に次ぐ第2位の原油輸出先である日本への影響だ。

About 10 percent of Japan's total oil imports come from Iran.
日本は総輸入原油の1割程度をイランから調達している。

Among U.S. allies, the sanctions are likely to affect Japan the most.
米の追加制裁によって、同盟国では最も甚大な影響を被る可能性がある。

If sanctions are imposed, Japan could be doubly hit by difficulty in procuring oil and high oil prices. This would hinder rebuilding the nation from the aftermath of the March 11 disaster. Our economy also may slow down.
 原油の調達不安に価格高騰が重なれば、震災復興に支障が出るし、経済も冷え込もう。

According to reports, some exemptions are permitted, such as removing foreign financial institutions from the sanctions list if they meet certain conditions. The U.S. president also is authorized to refrain from imposing sanctions for security reasons.
 制裁案には、一定の条件を満たした外国金融機関を制裁対象から外す特例措置や、安全保障の観点から制裁発動を避ける大統領権限が設けられているという。

The government must closely liaise with the U.S. administration and draw up measures to avoid Japan's oil imports being affected by the U.S. sanctions.
 政府は、原油輸入に支障が出ないよう、米国と緊密に協議し、万策を講じなければならない。

Other countries share similar concerns, such as South Korea--which imports about 10 percent of its oil imports from Iran--Greece, Italy, Spain and other European countries.
 イランに輸入原油の1割を依存している韓国や、イタリアやスペイン、ギリシャなど一部の欧州諸国も事情は同じだ。
The Obama administration needs to implement the sanctions carefully.
オバマ政権は、追加制裁の運用に際して慎重な配慮をすべきである。

===

China's reactions key

We also need to keep an eye on Beijing's moves in relation to the U.S. sanctions, as China is the largest importer of Iranian oil.
 注視したいのは、イランにとって最大の原油輸出先である中国の出方だ。

China has been critical of imposing any sanctions on Iran.
中国は、制裁自体に否定的だ。

If the U.S.-China relationship becomes strained because of the new sanctions, it will become more difficult to form an international coalition against Iran.
追加制裁をめぐり米中関係が緊張すれば、対イラン包囲網の形成はますます難しくなる。

Iran is expanding its uranium enrichment activities after ignoring four U.N. Security Council resolutions imposing sanctions on that country.
 イランは、国連安全保障理事会の4度にわたる制裁決議を無視して、ウラン濃縮活動を拡大している。

The United States, China and other permanent members of the Security Council should double their diplomatic efforts to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons.
核兵器保有を許さぬよう、米中など安保理常任理事国は外交努力を倍加すべきである。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 18, 2011)
(2011年12月18日01時10分 読売新聞)

2011/12/19

社会保障改革案 負担増求める施策を避けるな

タイの医療費は個人で全額負担ですが、タイは医療費、薬価が安いのでやっていけるのです。
日本では医療費、薬価ともに高すぎるので10%、20%の個人負担分でも、タイの全額負担よりきついくらいのものなのです。要するに、日本の医療費、薬価は高すぎるということで、問題の本質はここにあるのです。

日本の老人たちは、病院で世間話しをするのが唯一の楽しみみたいな印象を受けますが、本来病院はそのような場所ではないはずです。世界に名だたる皆保険制度の弊害だと思います。自由化すべきです。

集客のためにディスカウントセールをして、後からそれは間違っていたから差額分を帰せって理論です。
ソクラテスは「法は悪法であっても守らなければならない」といって自ら毒をあおって天国へと旅立ったのです。
前回のが悪法なら今回の切り下げも悪法だと思います。
守らなければなりませんね^^。
(スラチャイ)

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Dec. 18, 2011)
Govt, DPJ must not shy away from increasing public burden
社会保障改革案 負担増求める施策を避けるな(12月17日付・読売社説)

Can progress be made on social security and tax reform by putting off decisions on such key issues as asking the public to accept higher tax burdens and lower pension benefits?
 国民に負担増や給付減を求める改革を軒並み見送ることで、改革は前進するだろうか。

The Democratic Party of Japan's research council on integrated reform of the social security and taxation systems and the DPJ Tax System Research Committee held a joint meeting Friday. The meeting approved an outline of the social security-related portion of a draft of overall reform plans that is scheduled to be worked out before the end of the year.
 民主党の「社会保障と税の一体改革調査会」と「税制調査会」が合同総会を開き、年内にもまとめる一体改革大綱素案のうち、社会保障分野に関する骨子を了承した。

The social security reform outline will likely be formally authorized by the government in a meeting early next week of five related Cabinet ministers.
 週明けの関係5閣僚会合で、正式に政府案となる見通しだ。

It is praiseworthy that the joint meeting of the two key DPJ panels reached an accord to take concrete steps to rectify the overpayment of pension benefits, a question that has been pending since before the change of government that brought the DPJ to power in 2009.
 政権交代前から懸案だった「年金特例水準」の解消に踏み切った点は評価できる。

Pension payouts are designed to fluctuate, in principle, in accordance with ups and downs in consumer prices. When the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito were in power, however, the government left payouts at the same level despite declines in prices.
 年金額は原則として物価の変動に応じて上下するが、自公政権当時に物価が下落したのに年金額は据え置かれた。

===

Don't avoid benefit cuts

As a result of the extraordinary measure to avoid cutting payouts, current pension payments are about 2.5 percent higher than they should be.
 この特例措置により、年金額は本来より2・5%高い。

The overpayment for the last 10 years may be as high as 7 trillion yen.
約10年の累計で7兆円もの「払い過ぎ」が生じている。

According to the outline, pension benefits will be lowered in stages to a level considered appropriate over three years, starting in October 2012.
 骨子では、来年10月から3年かけて、年金額を本来の水準まで段階的に引き下げるとした。

To be exact, the planned adjustment of pension payouts should not be referred to as "reducing" pension benefits, but just returning benefits to a right and proper level.
 だが、これは正確には給付減ではなく、過払い分を適正額に戻すに過ぎない。

The outline also covers a wide range of measures for improving social security plans, such as an additional basic pension payment to elderly people in low income brackets and greater government support for child rearing. It rightly says many of these steps will be put into force "from the fiscal year when the consumption tax rate is raised."
 骨子はまた、低所得の高齢者に基礎年金を加算することや、子育て支援策の充実については、多くに「消費税率引き上げ年度から実施する」と条件を付けた。

No policy measure can be implemented without securing a source of revenue to fund it.
 財源の手当てなしに施策は実行できない。

Changing the social security system and raising the consumption tax are inseparably intertwined, and the DPJ and the government are urged to specify without delay when and by how much the 5 percent consumption tax will be hiked.
社会保障制度の手直しと消費税率引き上げは不可分であり、間を置かず、引き上げ幅と時期も明確に示すのが筋だろう。

The problem, however, is that the outline, while mentioning an array of measures to boost social security services, hardly refers to reforms that would require a greater burden on the public and cuts in benefits.
 問題は、拡充策が並ぶ一方で、負担増・給付減を求める改革がほとんど見当たらないことだ。

Regarding the current medical care system for people aged 70 to 74--under which they pay 10 percent of their overall medical bills from their own pocket at medical facilities--the plan to raise the percentage to the originally intended 20 percent was shelved during discussions at the joint meeting.
 暫定的に1割に据え置かれている70~74歳の医療費窓口負担を本来の2割に戻す案は見送られた。

To keep the current practice unchanged, the government is poised to earmark 200 billion yen in a supplementary budget to keep the system going in fiscal 2012.
2000億円の補正予算を組んで来年度も実施する。

===

Strong resolve crucial

Also pigeonholed was a reform plan to collect 100 yen from outpatients every time they visit a medical facility to secure funds to lower the financial burden of those who must pay for costly medical treatment.
 医療費が高額になる人の負担軽減にあてる目的で、外来に1回かかるごとに100円を徴収する改革案なども断念した。

In the draft the government and the ruling coalition parties mapped out in June for social security reform in tandem with taxation reform, it was envisioned that nearly 1.2 trillion yen in government spending would be trimmed through such steps as curbs on social security benefits. Meanwhile, revenues would be increased by about 2.7 trillion yen through a consumption tax hike.
 6月に政府・与党がまとめた一体改革案では、給付の抑制などで1・2兆円近く節約し、約2・7兆円を消費税率の引き上げで賄う計算になっていた。

It is highly doubtful whether the outline approved in the joint meeting of the DPJ panels is compatible with the June draft.
これと整合性がとれるのかどうか疑問だ。

It is hardly possible to make ends meet in social security services unless the DPJ and the government give priority to boosting the efficiency of the entire social security system by curbing benefits.
 制度を一層効率化し、給付を抑制する視点も持たなければ、帳尻は合わないだろう。

The government and the ruling coalition parties are scheduled to enter last-ditch discussions next week about the wisdom of raising the consumption tax.
 政府・与党は、来週から、消費税率引き上げの大詰めの議論に入る。

They must be candid enough to squarely seek the public's understanding of the need to accept greater burdens that are deemed essential.
国民に対して、必要な負担増はきちんと求める必要がある。

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and DPJ executives must have strong resolve in winning over opponents of a higher consumption tax, thus concluding the issue within the year as the prime minister has pledged.
 野田首相と民主党幹部は、断固とした姿勢で消費税増税への反対派を説得し、公約通り、年内に結論を出さねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 17, 2011)
(2011年12月17日01時31分 読売新聞)

2011/12/18

イラク戦争終結 米軍撤収後も山積する課題

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Dec. 17, 2011)
Piles of problems left in Iraq after withdrawal of U.S. forces
イラク戦争終結 米軍撤収後も山積する課題(12月16日付・読売社説)

Eight years and nine months after launching a war against Iraq, the United States is poised to finally bring its military operations in that country to a historic end.
 対イラク開戦から8年9か月。米国は、イラク戦争にようやく歴史的な区切りをつける。

U.S. President Barack Obama declared the end of the war at a ceremony held Wednesday at Fort Bragg, N.C., a U.S. Army installation, to welcome home soldiers who had been deployed to Iraq.
 オバマ米大統領が、ノースカロライナ州の陸軍基地での帰還兵歓迎式で「戦争の終結」を宣言した。

During his presidential election campaign, Obama criticized the administration of former President George W. Bush for committing the United States to the "wrong war" in Iraq. Obama pledged an early withdrawal from Iraq, and won the 2008 presidential election.
 大統領は、ブッシュ前政権が始めたイラク戦争を「間違った戦争」と批判し、2008年大統領選で早期撤退を公約して当選した。

The last U.S. troops stationed in Iraq will finish leaving the country shortly, thus fulfilling the promise Obama made after he took office to completely withdraw from the Middle Eastern country by the end of 2011.
 間もなく駐留米軍の最後の部隊引き揚げが完了し、大統領就任後に確約した「11年末までの撤収」が実現することになる。

===

U.S. paid heavy price

However, the United States has paid a heavy price for the war.
 米国が払った代価はあまりにも大きい。

The Bush administration launched the war after claiming Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction, which were never found.
The war also tarred the United States' national prestige, partly because of the chaos that erupted during its occupation of Iraq.
開戦理由とした大量破壊兵器は見つからず、占領統治の大混乱もあって国家の威信に傷がついた。

The country has racked up swelling fiscal deficits caused by massive military spending, and the war has claimed the lives of nearly 4,500 U.S. soldiers.
巨額の戦費で財政赤字は膨れあがり、4500人近い米兵の命も失われた。

Nevertheless, Obama stressed the war had not been fought in vain. "We are leaving behind a sovereign, stable and self-reliant Iraq...This is an extraordinary achievement nearly nine years in the making," he said in the speech at Fort Bragg.
 それでも大統領は演説で、「我々は、独立し、安定し、自立した国家をイラクに残した。多大な成果だ」と強調した。

The question now is whether these achievements can remain in place and be built on in Iraq without U.S. forces stationed there for backup. Piles of problems lie ahead.
 問題は、駐留米軍の後ろ盾なしに、イラクでこうした成果が定着し、発展していくかである。課題は山積している。

After the collapse of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's dictatorship in the war, the country at one time became mired in military conflict and terrorist attacks as confrontation raged between Shiite and Sunni Muslims. Although the United States finally calmed the situation by boosting its military presence in the country, it would be a stretch to say Iraq is now a nation totally at peace.
 戦争でサダム・フセイン大統領の独裁体制が崩壊した後、イスラム教シーア派とスンニ派の対立を背景に、一時は武力衝突やテロが泥沼化した。米国は兵力を増強してようやく沈静化させたが、完全に封じ込めたとは言えない。

Even today, many Iraqi citizens are being killed or wounded in terrorist attacks.
 多くの一般国民が今なおテロの犠牲になっている。

There are fears that the departure of U.S. troops could embolden terrorist organizations and lead to a deterioration of security in the country.
米軍撤退はテロ組織を勢いづかせ、治安の悪化を招く恐れがある。

===

Region crucial for Japan

Iraq has been riven by continuing confrontation between religious and tribal groups. National reconciliation is an urgent task, but the power base of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who is backed by Shiite Muslims, remains vulnerable.
 宗派間、民族間の対立が続いており、国民和解は急務である。シーア派勢力に支持されているマリキ首相の権力基盤は脆弱(ぜいじゃく)だ。

There also is the possibility that Iran, a major Shiite nation that shares a border with Iraq, might use the withdrawal of U.S. forces to step up its influence on Baghdad.
 米軍撤退につけこみ、隣国のシーア派大国イランが、イラクへの影響力を強める可能性もある。

If Iraq plunges into chaos again, it would have a significant impact on the whole region.
 イラク情勢が再び混迷すれば、地域全体に多大な影響が及ぶ。

The United States bears a heavy responsibility for the future of Iraq and the Middle East.
 イラクと中東の将来に対する米国の責任は重い。

Washington will have to not only cooperate with Baghdad in the security field, such as by training Iraqi military forces, but also press the country in the diplomatic arena so it becomes a responsible major country in the region.
米国は今後、イラク軍育成など安全保障分野での協力だけでなく、イラクが責任ある地域大国となるよう、外交面で働きかけていく必要がある。

In his meeting with Maliki in November, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda expressed his intention to extend yen loans totaling about 67 billion yen to Iraq for programs including a project to improve a refinery plant in the country.
 野田首相は11月、マリキ首相との会談で、イラクの製油所改良計画などへ約670億円の円借款を供与する意向を明らかにした。

We believe such efforts will help develop bilateral ties.
両国関係の発展に資するだろう。

Iraq's stability is extremely important for Japan, which imports 90 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East.
 原油輸入の9割を中東に依存する日本にとって、イラクの安定は極めて重要だ。

In addition to providing reconstruction assistance through official development assistance programs and other channels, it is critical that Japan deepens its economic and business ties with Iraq.
 政府開発援助(ODA)などによる復興支援とともに、経済やビジネス関係を深めていきたい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 16, 2011)
(2011年12月16日01時22分 読売新聞)

2011/12/17

イラク戦終結―米国は重い教訓に学べ

--The Asahi Shimbun, Dec. 16
EDITORIAL: U.S. should learn heavy lessons from Iraq war
イラク戦終結―米国は重い教訓に学べ

U.S. President Barack Obama has declared the end of the Iraq war.
 オバマ米大統領が、イラク戦争の終結を宣言した。

Nearly 4,500 U.S. troops were killed during the war that stretched about nine years.
足かけ9年の戦闘で、死亡した米兵は4500人近くにおよぶ。

The death toll among Iraqi civilians is said to have topped 100,000.
一方、イラク民間人の犠牲者は10万人以上にのぼるともいう。

"It is harder to end a war than to begin one," the president said in a speech at a U.S. Army installation in North Carolina.
 「戦争を終えることは、始めることより困難だ」と、オバマ氏は米国内の基地で演説した。

We wish to commend Obama for making good on his pledge to withdraw troops and pulling out of the quagmire in Iraq.
 撤兵の公約を守り、イラクの泥沼から抜けだした点は評価したい。

However, it is questionable whether this war was really needed when we think about the horrible bloodshed it incurred.
だが、流された多くの血を思えば、果たしてこの戦争は必要だったのか。

We need to address this question once again.
改めて問わざるを得ない。

The former administration of George W. Bush went to war against Iraq, claiming the Saddam Hussein regime was developing weapons of mass destruction.
 ブッシュ前政権がイラクに戦争を仕掛けたのは、フセイン政権が大量破壊兵器を開発している、という理由からだった。

It capitalized on U.S. public opinion frightened by the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on U.S. nerve centers and incited fears that unless the United States took pre-emptive action, it would be attacked again.
 米国中枢部への同時多発テロにおびえた世論に乗じ「先制攻撃をかけなければ、再び攻撃を受ける」と不安をあおった。

In fact, there was no connection between the Saddam regime and the international terrorist organization al-Qaida.
 実際は、フセイン政権と国際テロ組織アルカイダは無関係だった。

Nevertheless, the United States went to war without winning the support of the United Nations Security Council.
それでも国連安全保障理事会の支持も得られぬまま、強引に開戦に踏み切った。

The war without legitimacy drew harsh criticism from both international society and the U.S. public and caused a serious rift both at home and abroad.
 正当性のない戦争は、国際社会からも米国世論からも激しい批判を招き、内外に深刻な亀裂を生んだ。

In the end, no weapons of mass destruction were found. Washington's stopgap occupational policy threw Iraq into confusion and ignited a bloody sectarian conflict between Sunni Muslims and Shiites.
 結局、大量破壊兵器は見つからず、場当たりの占領政策でイラクは大混乱に陥った。イスラム教スンニ派と少数派シーア派との間で、血で血を洗う宗派闘争が燃え上がってしまった。

Obama said: "We are leaving behind a sovereign, stable and self-reliant Iraq, with a representative government that was elected by its people."
 オバマ氏は「安定し、民衆に選ばれた政府を持つイラクにしたことは大きな業績だ」と語った。

But the actual situation in Iraq is far from stable.
だが、現状が安定しているとはとても言えないだろう。

Terrorist bombings are still going on.
 爆弾テロは依然として続いている。

On the very day Obama delivered the speech, at least three people were killed in northern Iraq by terrorist bombs.
オバマ氏の演説当日も、北部の爆弾テロで少なくとも3人が死亡した。

The rebuilding of infrastructure, such as power plants, also still has a long way to go.
電気など生活インフラの再建も途上だ。

As the United States pulls out its troops, it must squarely face the heavy lessons of this war.
 撤退を機に、米国はこの戦争の重い教訓を直視しなければならない。

There are also signs that sectarian antagonism is flaring up again in expectations of a power vacuum after the U.S. withdrawal as the administration of Nouri al-Maliki is detaining Sunnis.
 米軍撤退後の「力の真空」をにらんで、マリキ政権がスンニ派を拘束するなど、宗派間対立の再燃の兆しがでている。

Armed Sunni insurgents who cooperated with the U.S. forces while the country was under occupation appear to be increasingly nervous about retaliation.
 逆に、米軍に協力してきたスンニ派武装勢力は、報復に神経をとがらせているようだ。

Iraq's relations with neighboring countries are also unstable as Iran is increasing its influence in southern Iraq and Turkish forces are advancing into the northern region inhabited by the Kurds.
南部ではイランの影響力が増し、北部のクルド人地区にはトルコ軍が侵攻するなど、周辺国との関係も不安定だ。

If confusion continues at home, it could once again lead to foreign intervention.
 国内が混乱すれば外国勢力の介入を再び招きかねない。

To avoid such a situation, we want the Iraqi people to build a stable democracy on their own.
そうした事態を避けるためにも、イラク人自身の手で、安定した民主国家を作ってほしい。

Japan also dispatched Self-Defense Forces to Samawah in southeastern Iraq.
 日本も自衛隊をサマワに派遣した経緯がある。

It is an active player in supporting Iraqi reconstruction.
イラク復興支援では当事国である。

Japan should continue civilian aid and economic cooperation so as not to create a vacuum in support.
支援の空白を生まないよう、民生援助や経済協力を続けていきたい。

2011/12/16

グアム予算凍結 事態打開へ「普天間」の進展を

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Dec. 15, 2011)
Govt must advance Futenma issue to lessen Okinawa's base burdens
グアム予算凍結 事態打開へ「普天間」の進展を(12月14日付・読売社説)

It has become even more difficult to implement visible steps that would lessen Okinawa Prefecture's burdens as the host of many U.S. military bases.
 目に見える沖縄の米軍基地負担軽減策の実現が危うくなってきた。

The government must recognize that this situation is extremely serious.
極めて深刻な事態と受け止める必要があろう。

The armed services committees of the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives have agreed on revisions to a bill for the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal 2012, which includes a freeze on the entire 156 million dollars budget for shifting U.S. marines stationed in Okinawa Prefecture to Guam.
 米上下両院の軍事委員会が、在沖縄海兵隊のグアム移転関連予算1億5600万ドル(約120億円)の全額凍結を含む2012会計年度の国防権限法案の修正で合意した。

The revised bill is scheduled to be approved at plenary sessions of both chambers shortly.
修正案は近く両院本会議で可決される。

The Guam relocation budget was earmarked for constructing the headquarters building and family residences, as well as for the relocation of 8,000 marines and their about 9,000 family members from Okinawa Prefecture.
 グアム関連予算は、海兵隊員8000人と家族9000人の移転に伴い、司令部庁舎や家族住宅などを整備するためのものだ。

The budget has been cut in the past, but this was the first time the entire budget was frozen.
従来、減額されたことはあったが、全額凍結は初めてだ。

===

Guam relocation to face scrapping

The U.S. Congress has been trying to cut massive defense spending. It has been toughening its stance of not approving the Guam relocation budget unless progress is made on the relocation plan of Futenma Air Station in Okinawa Prefecture, which is considered a "set" with the marines' relocation.
 米議会は、巨額の国防費削減に向け、海兵隊移転と「一体の計画」である普天間飛行場の移設が進まない以上、グアム関連予算は認めないとの姿勢を強めていた。

If there is no budget for the program in fiscal 2013, the Guam relocation plan itself likely would face being scrapped.
 仮に13年度も予算がつかなければ、移転計画全体が白紙になりかねない。

If that should happen, the scheduled return of six U.S. military facilities in southern Okinawa Prefecture to Japan's rule--a key element in the realignment of U.S. forces in Japan--would also face a setback.
その場合、在日米軍再編の目玉である沖縄県南部の米軍6施設の返還も頓挫する。

Many people in Okinawa Prefecture want the issue of moving the marines to Guam to be separate from the Futenma station's relocation within the prefecture.
 沖縄県には、普天間飛行場の県内移設と切り離して、海兵隊移転だけを実現したいとの声が少なくない。

However, they should recognize such a plan is unrealistic.
だが、それは、もはや非現実的だと認識すべきだろう。

The U.S. government tried to persuade Congress not to freeze the funds because it believed a degree of "tangible progress" would be made if the Japanese government submits an environment impact assessment statement to the prefecture within the year as planned. However, the efforts at persuasion failed.
 米政府は、日本政府が年内に普天間飛行場移設の環境影響評価書を沖縄県に提出することを「一定の進展」とみなし、米議会の説得を試みたが、失敗した。

A "far more substantial development" in the Futenma issue will be necessary to convince Congress to revive the Guam relocation budget in fiscal 2013.
 13年度にグアム予算を復活計上させるには、米議会が納得するだけの普天間問題の「より実質的な進展」が必須となる。

There are only two options left for Tokyo and Washington, as well as the Okinawa prefectural government.
 日米両政府と沖縄県に残された選択肢は今、二つしかない。

One is to move ahead with the relocation of the Futenma base to the Henoko district in Nago, also in the prefecture, and realize the U.S. marines' relocation to Guam.
 一つは、普天間飛行場の名護市辺野古移設を進め、海兵隊のグアム移転を実現する道だ。

When the six U.S. military facilities are returned to Japan's rule, the availability of these vast sites will give momentum to a new revitalization plan for the island prefecture from next fiscal year.
米軍6施設が返還されれば、広大な跡地利用により、来年度からの新たな沖縄振興計画にも弾みがつこう。

The other is to give up both the Futenma relocation to Henoko and the transfer of the marines to Guam.
 もう一つは、普天間の辺野古移設も、海兵隊移転も断念する道だ。

In this case, those involved will have to accept that the dangerous situation of the Futenma base, located in the middle of a city, will remain for a long time.
その場合、普天間飛行場の危険な現状が長期間、固定化されることも覚悟せざるを得ない。
===

Govt, Okinawa must see reality

The central and Okinawa prefectural governments must recognize the reality that only two options are left. It is essential that they discuss straightforwardly and seriously how to ensure Japan's security while lessening Okinawa Prefecture's burdens.
 政府と沖縄県は、この現実を直視し、日本の安全保障と沖縄の負担軽減をいかに両立させるかについて、率直かつ真剣に話し合うことが重要となる。

Of course, the responsibility for the current situation rests with former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and other officials.
After all, they proposed relocating the Futenma base somewhere outside the prefecture or even outside the country, a suggestion that built up unreasonable expectations among many Okinawa residents--and then eventually betrayed these hopes.
 無論、普天間飛行場の「県外・国外移設」を唱え、沖縄に過剰な期待を持たせた末に裏切った経緯を踏まえれば、現在の事態を招いた責任は鳩山元首相らにある。

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has not visited Okinawa Prefecture since he assumed the post.
 野田首相は就任後、まだ沖縄を訪問していない。

It is about time he stood up to break the deadlock.
そろそろ自ら事態打開に動く時である。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 14, 2011)
(2011年12月14日01時46分 読売新聞)

2011/12/14

火論:花形の時代=玉木研二

(Mainichi Japan) December 13, 2011
Remember past enthusiasm for nuclear science as we edge towards non-nuclear future
火論:花形の時代=玉木研二
 <ka-ron>

It's been pointed out in many quarters that the field of nuclear power in Japan has been failing to attract the interest of students.
There was a time not so long ago, however, that nuclear energy was at the cutting edge -- the superstar of scientific disciplines.
 原子力分野への学生の志望減退が指摘されているが、いうまでもなく往時は最先端をいく花形分野だった。

One can catch a glimpse of this by looking at how nuclear researchers were depicted in the literature and films of the period -- although hints of misgivings are also easily found.
小説や映画に登場する研究者らに、その時代が抱いていたそんなイメージがのぞく。

Take, for example, Yasushi Inoue's novel "Hyoheki" (Ice wall), first serialized in the Asahi Shimbun newspaper in 1956 -- the same year the government formed the Japan Atomic Energy Commission and the industrial world entered the nuclear industry in a serious way.
 例えば、原子力委員会が設置され、産業界も原子力事業に本格的に参入した1956(昭和31)年、朝日新聞で井上靖の長編「氷壁」の連載が始まった。

"Hyoheki" is primarily the story of a man and a woman stranded in the mountains. However, the novel also depicts a senior researcher for a major company lab as a representation of the era's scientific rationalism.
山岳の遭難事故を軸とした男女の物語だが、現代の科学性、合理性の象徴のような大企業の幹部研究者が出てくる。

When someone tells him that nuclear science "carries all the hopes of humanity" and "contains within it every potentiality," the researcher replies, "I don't think only humanity's bright dreams and possibilities are wrapped up in nuclear science.
 彼が、話し相手から原子科学について<人類の夢がいっぱい詰め込まれているものなんでしょう。あらゆる可能性がその中にはいっている>と語りかけられて、こう言う場面がある。<強(あなが)ち原子科学の中に、明るい人類の夢や可能性ばかりが詰まっているとは思えませんな。

It also carries the possibility of humanity's ruin."
そこにはまた、人類の亡(ほろ)びの可能性も詰まっているわけです>

When Inoue wrote these words, the United States and the Soviet Union were locked in a nuclear arms race and conducting above-ground nuclear tests, while at the same time the "peaceful use" of nuclear energy was being trumpeted as possessing "limitless possibility."
 当時、米ソの険悪な対立の中で競って軍事目的の核実験が行われ、一方で核エネルギーの「平和利用」と「無限の可能性」が錦の御旗(みはた)とされたころ。

In the cynicism expressed by the researcher Inoue depicted in the novel, one can see the author's own thoughts on nuclear technology seeping through.
研究者の皮肉を含む口ぶりに「危うさ」を感じ取っていた作者の思いがにじんでいるのかもしれない。

In 1959, the Tokyo Shimbun newspaper ran a serialized novel by noted author Fumiko Enchi called "Watakushi mo moeteiru" (I, too, am burning).
 59年、東京新聞に連載を始めた円地文子の「私も燃えている」は、放縦な私生活を送りながら研究には無我夢中になる気鋭の若手原子物理学者が登場する。

In the story, a young, dissolute nuclear physicist lost in his research absorbs a lethal dose of radiation when he makes a mistake during an experiment.
彼は核融合実験のミスで大量の放射線を浴び、命を落とした。

Before dying, the man sums up the novel, saying, "I turned towards that thing all humanity hopes for: the peaceful application of nuclear technology.
And I bet my life on opening that door just a crack."
小説は<原子力の平和利用という人類のすべてが望む明るい方向へ向けて、一枚の扉を開きかけることに生命を賭けてしまった>と表現する。

Three years later, in 1962, film studio Toho Co. released a film titled "Gorath" in which nuclear power saves Earth from destruction by a mysterious object hurtling through space.
 さらに3年後の62年、東宝特撮映画「妖星ゴラス」は原子力が人類を救うSFだ。地球衝突への軌道を謎の天体が進んでくる。

The entire world's nuclear energy is combined to create a propulsion device at the South Pole and shift Earth out of the way of the object. The nuclear engine, however, alters Earth's orbit.
「全世界の原子力を総結集」して南極に巨大な推進機関を設け噴射、地球の軌道を変えてやり過ごす。

Regardless of the story's plainly ridiculous premise, what can be seen in the film is a spirit true to the era in which it was made, with the countries of the world transcending national interests to save the Earth through nuclear power.
 このむちゃと危険は言うまい。冷戦のさなか、世界が国を超え力を合わせて原子力を媒介に地球を助ける発想が、いかにもこの時代らしい。

In the period from the mid-1950s to the mid '60s, the image of nuclear power was forged by anxiety and fear of a nuclear holocaust mixed with sky-high hopes for nuclear technology's peaceful uses.
 昭和でいえば30年代は、漠然とした不安、核戦争の恐怖、そして「平和利用」の夢といったものがないまぜになって、原子力のイメージを形作っていたと思える。

Things have changed a great deal since then. For today's youth, the Fukushima nuclear disaster has spurred the idea of leaving nuclear power behind. However, on this point there is one thing I'd like to say:
 時と状況は大きく転じた。福島の事故は若き頭脳の「原子力離れ」に拍車をかけたという。だがあえて言いたい。

Look back on how nuclear science was portrayed in the 1950s and '60s. To resolve the great unknowns lurking in the undiscovered territories of a non-nuclear future, a fresh, vibrant intelligence and way of thinking -- a new superstar -- will be needed.
 未知の領域が山積した事態の改善・収拾にこそ、みずみずしい新「花形」の知恵と発想が要る。

Is it asking too much to bring all Japan's top minds together, just like in the movies, to tackle the challenge?
映画のように総結集させようというのは、甘いだろうか。(専門編集委員)

(By Kenji Tamaki, Expert Senior Writer)
毎日新聞 2011年12月13日 東京朝刊

EU首脳会議 金融不安の払拭にまだ力不足

専門用語:
fiscal sovereignty 財政主権
(スラチャイ)

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Dec. 13, 2011)
Europe accord not enough to dispel financial concerns
EU首脳会議 金融不安の払拭にまだ力不足(12月11日付・読売社説)

European leaders barely managed to reach an agreement to prevent the Greece-triggered sovereign debt crisis from spreading to the rest of the world from Europe.
 ギリシャに端を発した欧州発金融危機を食い止めようと、欧州各国の首脳が薄氷の合意にこぎつけた。

However, it does not seem powerful enough to dispel financial concerns.
だが、金融不安払拭には力不足だろう。

Leaders of European Union countries, including the 17 nations that use the euro, such as Germany and France, agreed Friday to conclude a new treaty that will impose stringent fiscal discipline on its members.
 ユーロ導入の独仏など17か国を含む欧州連合(EU)首脳会議は、厳しい財政規律を課する新条約を締結することで合意した。

The countries taking part in the new treaty will specify the principle of "fiscal balance" in their respective constitutions.
 新条約の参加国は「財政均衡」の原則を憲法に明記する。

The principle is designed to automatically impose sanctions on countries whose fiscal deficit exceeds 3 percent of their gross domestic product in a single fiscal year.
単年度の財政赤字が対国内総生産(GDP)比3%を突破した国には、自動的に制裁を発動する内容だ。

The measure can be called a praiseworthy step forward, obliging individual countries to take steps to repair their finances based on lessons learned from the lax fiscal management of Greece and some other European countries.
 危機をもたらしたギリシャなどの放漫財政を教訓に、財政健全化を各国に義務づける方策は、ひとまず前進と評価できよう。

===

One currency, many policies

The euro's fundamental weakness has lain in the fact that while eurozone countries have introduced the single currency, they have widely different fiscal policies.
 通貨は一つだが、財政政策は各国でバラバラだったことが、ユーロの根本的な弱点だった。

If the European countries can sign the new treaty by March as scheduled under the leadership of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, European unity will enter a new phase toward fiscal integration, which has been a long-standing issue.
 メルケル独首相とサルコジ仏大統領が主導して、予定通りに2012年3月までに各国が新条約に署名すれば、懸案の財政統合に向け、欧州統合は新局面に入る。

However, British Prime Minister David Cameron, whose country is not a eurozone member, refused to join the new treaty, from the standpoint of protecting his country's fiscal sovereignty.
 だが、新条約案に対し、非ユーロ圏の英国のキャメロン首相だけは、自国の財政主権を守る立場から参加を拒否した。

The divide between the French-German position and that of Britain can be said to have highlighted discord among EU member states.
独仏と英国の対立は、EU内の不協和音をさらけ出したと言える。

More serious was the fact that the latest summit meeting failed to come up with bold measures to contain the raging crisis.
 さらに深刻なのは、今回の首脳会議が、燃えさかる当面の危機を封じ込めるために必要な大胆な策を打ち出せなかったことだ。

Leaders agreed at the meeting to launch the European Stability Mechanism in the middle of next year, one year ahead of the original schedule.
The bailout fund will provide fiscally distressed European countries with financial assistance and has been described as the European version of the International Monetary Fund.
 会議は、財政危機国に資金支援する欧州版の国際通貨基金(IMF)とされる「欧州安定メカニズム(ESM)」について、予定を1年前倒しして来年半ばに発足させる方針で一致した。

The leaders also agreed on a bailout plan that would extend loans of up to 200 billion euros (about 21 trillion yen) to countries in fiscal crisis through the IMF.
 IMFを通じて、財政危機国に最大2000億ユーロ(約21兆円)を貸し出す救済策も決めた。

===

IMF plan may not work

However, there are questions whether the IMF plan will be feasible given that the United States, the largest contributor to the international body, showed reluctance to make additional contributions.
 だが、IMF活用案には、IMF最大出資国である米国が新たな資金拠出に難色を示すなど、実効性に疑問も残る。

The EU leaders also failed, because of Germany's objections, to agree on a common euro bond to be jointly issued by eurozone countries.
 ユーロ圏が共同で発行する「ユーロ共通債」も、ドイツの反対で合意できなかった。

Above all, European countries have yet to secure enough funds to tackle the region's fiscal and financial crisis due to the slow progress of the plan to expand the European Financial Stability Facility, whose functions will eventually be taken over by the ESM.
 何より、ESMの母体となる欧州金融安定基金(EFSF)の拡充が進んでおらず、危機対策の資金が十分確保できていない。

For European countries to regain the rest of the world's confidence, it will be essential for them to act quickly to strengthen the EFSF.
欧州がEFSF強化に迅速に動くことが信頼回復に不可欠である。

It still remains uncertain how the global stock and exchange markets and credit rating companies will evaluate the conclusions agreed upon at the summit meeting.
 世界の株式・為替市場や、格付け会社が、首脳会議の結論をどう評価するのかは不透明だ。

Market players have high expectations that the European Central Bank will support Italy and other distressed eurozone countries through massive purchases of those nations' government bonds. Yet the ECB remains cautious about taking such steps.
市場では、欧州中央銀行(ECB)がイタリアなどの国債を大量に買い支えることへの期待があるが、ECBは慎重姿勢を崩していない。

Germany and France are taking the lead in Europe's precarious attempt to overcome the crisis. They bear a heavy responsibility in this regard.
 危機克服への綱渡りを先導する独仏両国の責任は大きい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 11, 2011)
(2011年12月11日01時10分 読売新聞)