中国威圧外交 リスク増大で日本の投資減も

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Sep. 24, 2012) Anti-Japan stance may curb investment in China 中国威圧外交　リスク増大で日本の投資減も（9月23日付・読売社説） Anti-Japan demonstrations in cities around China to protest the Japanese government's purchase of the Senkaku Islands have mostly calmed down. 　日本の尖閣諸島国有化に反発する中国各地の反日デモは、ほぼ沈静化した。 However, it is a problem that the Chinese government is escalating its overbearing approach in diplomacy. 　だが、中国の威圧外交が強まっていることは問題である。 Chinese authorities banned demonstrations in Beijing after Tuesday, which marked the 81st anniversary of the Liutiaohu bombing incident that prefaced the Manchurian Incident. 　中国当局は、満州事変の発端となった柳条湖事件から８１年となる１８日を最後に、北京でのデモを禁止した。 The authorities apparently became wary that continuing to allow the demonstrations could threaten social stability because some of them developed into riots. 　一部が暴徒化したデモを容認し続けると、社会の安定が揺らぐと警戒したようだ。 But we are concerned that Chinese President Hu Jintao and other national leaders have made a series of hard-line statements against Japan. Premier Wen Jiabao said in Brussels, where the China-European Union summit meeting was held, that China "must take strong measures," referring to the Japanese government's purchase of the Senkaku Islands. 　懸念すべきは、胡錦濤国家主席ら首脳の強硬発言が相次いでいることだ。温家宝首相は、欧州連合（ＥＵ）との首脳会談が開かれたブリュッセルで、尖閣諸島国有化に言及し、「有力な措置を講じなければならない」と述べた。 Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, who will succeed Hu at the upcoming National Congress of the Communist Party of China, also said some groups in Japan repeated mistakes and "staged the farce" of purchasing the islands. 　近く開かれる共産党大会で胡氏のポストを引き継ぐ習近平国家副主席も、「日本の一部勢力は過ちを繰り返し、島購入という茶番を演じた」と発言した。 They apparently were expressing their determination to make no concessions at all to Japan. 　日本には絶対に譲歩しない、という決意を示したのだろう。 === Doing business in China risky However, we believe it was to the Chinese side's disadvantage that the demonstrations have made Japanese companies keenly realize the risks of doing business in China. 　しかし、中国での事業リスクを日本企業に痛感させたことは、中国側にもマイナスではないか。 Resumption of operations is being delayed at some of the Japanese factories in China attacked by demonstrators. The Chinese side has not shown any willingness to pay compensation for damage caused during the protests. The Japanese nonlife insurance sector estimated that insurance payouts to the damaged companies would reach 10 billion yen in total. That eventually might raise insurance fees of the companies. 　反日デモで襲撃された企業の一部の工場再開は遅れている。中国側が損害賠償する姿勢は見えず、日本の損保業界は被害企業への保険金が約１００億円にも上ると試算した。いずれ各社の保険料も値上がりしかねない。 It is also a matter of concern that strikes for pay raises are occurring frequently at Japanese-affiliated plants in Guangdong and other provinces in China. 　広東省などの日系工場で、賃上げを要求するストライキが頻発していることも憂慮される。 We understand why one Japanese business leader after another is expressing wariness about investment in China, saying they must be cautious. 　経済界で「対中投資は慎重にならざるを得ない」と警戒する声が続出しているのは当然である。 Japanese firms have placed much value on China as the factory of the world and increased their investment in that country. Such investment reached a total of 6.3 billion dollars last year, up 50 percent from the previous year. This contrasts with U.S. investment in China, which fell 26 percent last year to a mere 3 billion dollars. 　日本企業は中国を「世界の工場」と重視し、投資を増やしてきた。昨年の投資額は前年比５０％増の６３億ドルに達し、２６％減の３０億ドルにとどまった米国と対照的だ。 === Millions work at Japan firms Such aggressive investment by Japanese companies is sustaining China's employment and economy. It is estimated that several million Chinese work at Japanese-affiliated companies in China. 　こうした積極的な投資が、中国の雇用と景気を支えている。日系企業による中国での雇用者は数百万人に達するとも推計される。 The violent anti-Japan demonstrations have trampled on cooperative relations between China and Japan that have been nurtured over many years. 　過激な反日デモは、長年培ってきた日本との協調関係も踏みにじったことになる。 It is highly likely that Japanese companies will sharply curb their investment in China and instead increase investment in other Asian countries such as Vietnam and Thailand. 　日本企業の対中投資には急ブレーキがかかり、代わって、ベトナムやタイなどアジア他国への投資が増える可能性が大きい。 Because the Chinese economy is continuing to slow down due to a decrease in exports and other factors, China's real economic growth rate this year is expected to drop below 8 percent. It is certain that--depending on the investment strategy of Japanese companies--downward pressure could further increase on the Chinese economy, negatively affecting employment there. 　中国経済は輸出減などで景気減速が止まらず、今年の実質経済成長率は８％を割りそうだ。日本企業の投資戦略によっては、一段の景気の下押し圧力となり、雇用にも悪影響を与えるに違いない。 China should realize that continuing its hard line against Japan could boomerang to its own disadvantage. 　中国政府は、対日強硬姿勢を改めないと、自国にも不利になって跳ね返る恐れがあることを自覚すべきだろう。 (From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 23, 2012) （2012年9月23日01時13分 読売新聞）